2016年全球猪肉产量将下降

发布时间:2016-09-09 10:50:05   来源:猪OK网   阅读:1657次

全球猪肉产量

  Overall world meat production is predicted to stagnate at about 321 million tonnes in 2016. Poultry is forecast to register some growth, followed by bovine and ovine meat, while pigmeat output could decline, according to the June 2016 FAO Food Outlook.

  据2016年联合国粮农组织粮食展望报告,2016年全球肉类产量预计维持在32100万吨左右。禽肉产量预计有一定增长,牛羊肉也会小幅增长,但猪肉产量可能会下降。

  World production of pig meat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7 percent to 116.4 million tonnes, thus registering a second year of virtual stagnation. As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown.

  2016年全球猪肉产量预计下降约0.7%至11640万吨,使猪肉产量连续两年处停滞期。2015年全球猪肉产量下降的主要原因是占全球猪肉产量一半的中国产量降低。

  An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5 percent from the previous year.

  猪粮比和新环保法规的不利影响,使养殖户减少了能繁母猪的存栏数,从而导致猪肉产量停滞不前。中国猪肉产量预计将达5400万吨,比去年下降2.5%。

  Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines and Viet Nam could boost output. Also, production in Japan and the Republic of Korea may expand, as the industry recovers from outbreaks of porcine endemic diarrhoea(PED), which reduced piglet numbers in the previous two years.

  亚洲其他地区,菲律宾和越南的产量可能会升高,日本和韩国前两年因猪流行性腹泻疫情使得仔猪数量下降,随疫情消失,两国产量可能快速增加。

  Recovery from the effects of PED has been faster in the United States, where a second year of growth is anticipated, when production could increase by 1.9 percent to a record 11.3 million tonnes. Output in Mexico also continues to recover, following a PED outbreak in 2014, and may rise in 2016 by 2.0 percent to 1.3 million tonnes.

  由于美国养猪业从猪流行性腹泻疫情的不利影响中快速恢复,预计产量将连续第二年增加,增长率1.9%,将达1130万吨。墨西哥猪肉产量也从2014年猪流行性腹泻疫情的影响中恢复,可能在2016年增长2%,达到130万吨。

  In both countries, lower feed prices have encouraged upscaling.

  这两个国家饲料价格的降低,也促进了其猪肉产量的增加。

  Elsewhere in the Americas, favourable feed costs are forecast to boost production in Canada and Brazil.

  美洲其他地区:加拿大和巴西有利的饲料价格推动两国猪肉产量的增加。

  In the Russian Federation, the pace of growth in pig meat production could quicken, due to investment in, and the growing importance of, large-scale production units.

  俄罗斯因其对规模化猪场的投资不断加大,猪肉产量增长迅速,这也凸显了提高规模化猪场比重的重要性。

  Meanwhile, EU output is expected to fall marginally, by 0.3 percent to 23.3 million tonnes, as a result of a decline in breeding sow numbers.

  同时,由于能繁殖母猪存栏数的下降,欧盟猪肉产量预计小幅下降0.3%,至2330万吨。

  Trade: second year of strong growth

  贸易:强劲增长的第二年

  Trade in pigmeat in 2016 is expected to experience a second year of growth, increasing by 4.4 percent to 7.5 million tonnes – a record level. Lower international prices have stimulated trade.

  2016年猪肉贸易预计连续第二年增长,提高4.4%,达创记录水平的750万吨。较低的国际价格促进了贸易的增长。

  In May 2016, average export prices were 11 percent below a year earlier and almost 33 percent below those of May 2014. Most of the principal importing countries are anticipated to augment their levels of purchases, including Mexico, China, the Russian Federation, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia. The upward surge in demand would be more than sufficient to counterbalance anticipated declining imports by Canada, Viet Nam and Colombia.

  2016年5月,猪肉平均出口价格比去年低11%,比2014年5月低33%。预计墨西哥、中国、俄罗斯、美国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚等主要进口国会增加进口量。需求的强劲上升趋势足以抵消加拿大、越南、哥伦比亚三国进口量的下降。

  In response to rising demand, shipments by most of the main exporting countries are projected to grow in 2016. The Americas are forecast to lead the way, assisted by post-PED industry recovery in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and generally favourable feed prices in all countries, including Brazil.

  2016年,许多猪肉出口国为了应对需求地不断上涨,纷纷计划增加出货数量。随着美国、加拿大和墨西哥从猪流行性腹泻疫情中恢复,加上巴西等国有利的饲料价格,美洲预计将引领全球猪肉贸易的增长。

  The EU is anticipated to see sales rise further, building on the vibrant growth experienced in 2015.

  欧盟在历经2015年快速增长后,预计销量进一步增加。

  EU exporters have adjusted to the 2014 Russian Federation embargo by seeking alternative markets, in particular in Asia, especially China. Conversely, Brazil, which was not subject to the ban, has experienced a substantial rise in exports to the Russian Federation, which, as a single destination, may constitute as much as half of Brazil’s external sales of pigmeat in 2016.

  欧盟出口商通过寻找其他市场来应对2014年俄罗斯对其实施的贸易禁运,主要锁定亚洲市场,尤其是中国。相反,不受俄罗斯禁令限制的巴西对俄罗斯的猪肉出口量将不断增长。而俄罗斯作为巴西猪肉出口的主要目的地,巴西对俄罗斯的猪肉出口量将达2016年巴西猪肉总出口量的一半。

 



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